Tropical Storm TRUDY

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS TRUDY QUICKLY INTENSIFIES...
...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE TRUDY MAKES LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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