Tropical Storm OCTAVE

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
 
...OCTAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.1N 112.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LITTLE OR NO MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OCTAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. ADDITIONAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH OCTAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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