Tropical Storm IVO
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 9 24 38 44 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 5 19 34 43 41 39 NA
TROPICAL STORM 93 73 52 32 20 16 NA
HURRICANE 2 5 4 2 1 X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 5 4 2 1 X NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
P ABREOJOS 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 7(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 23 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
LA PAZ 34 11 10(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
LORETO 34 1 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
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FORECASTER AVILA
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