Tropical Depression ROSA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
700 AM PST SUN NOV 04 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF ROSA OF THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THIS RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY AS STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOVE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 25 KT.  THE STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK DEMISE OF ROSA.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
ROSA APPEARS TO HAVE DRIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.  THE UPDATED TRACK
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 12.5N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 12.6N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1200Z 12.9N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 13.0N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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