Hurricane PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95
KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 8 64 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X 4 21 28 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 1 21 48 34 8 NA NA
HURRICANE 99 79 47 38 X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 28 59 36 27 X NA NA
HUR CAT 2 58 17 8 8 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 13 3 3 3 X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 80KT 65KT 40KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P ABREOJOS 34 X 7( 7) 46(53) 9(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63)
P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 1 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LORETO 34 1 23(24) 36(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
LORETO 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
LORETO 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 17(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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