Hurricane MIRIAM
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 4 21 30
TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 3 20 36 34
TROPICAL STORM X 4 22 46 60 40 32
HURRICANE 99 96 77 50 17 4 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 34 49 36 14 4 2
HUR CAT 2 32 42 20 10 2 X 1
HUR CAT 3 61 17 8 4 X X X
HUR CAT 4 5 3 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 100KT 90KT 80KT 70KT 55KT 40KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 2(18)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA CLARION 34 95 3(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA CLARION 50 51 18(69) 2(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
ISLA CLARION 64 17 19(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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