Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012
 
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS
TIME...THE BANDING STRUCTURE ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES
WAS IMPRESSIVE. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IN THIS
ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING
APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL KEEP EMILIA FROM INTENSIFYING
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR PERHAPS EARLIER...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX INCREASED FROM A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY TO A 73 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE
CENTER...WHICH IS COMMONLY AN INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION AT A
FASTER PACE. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE GOOD NEWS FOR
MEXICO IS THAT THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STEERING
FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
GOOD CLIP WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. SINCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...EMILIA WILL
PROBABLY DECREASE SOME IN FORWARD SPEED. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED
STEERING FLOW...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT VERY TIGHT...BUT STILL ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE EMILIA WESTWARD OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 10.7N 103.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 11.3N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 12.0N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 12.8N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 16.5N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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