Tropical Storm BUD

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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
 
WITHOUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE
CENTER OF BUD.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH DOES KEEP THE CENTER
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  MANUAL AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL YIELD AN INTENSITY AROUND 35
KT...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING WESTWARD...AND BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODELS FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.  BUD SHOULD STILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3 WHEN IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...BUT SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREVENTING
BUD FROM REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE ECMWF IS THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER ON DAY 3...BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF MODELS...BUT THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS BUD STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO AT DAYS 4
AND 5.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ON THOSE DAYS.

APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT BUD.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO TONE
DOWN THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
RELATIVELY WARM UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE BIGGEST
LIMITING FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL
SHOWS BUD REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. 

EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE STAYING OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH THE COAST. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN ERRORS STILL SHOW
A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 11.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 12.8N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 13.7N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 14.6N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 18.0N 104.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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