Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
A RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLY
LOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICAL
DEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER
CYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE
BASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OR
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.  SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITS
PATH.  A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26C
AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72
HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT.
 
SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN
SATELLITE ERA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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