Hurricane JOVA

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
 
...JOVA TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS A STRONG CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.8N 106.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES
NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED BY
A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
 
RECENT REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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