Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       X       2
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       X       2      10
TROPICAL STORM   X       X       1       2       9      28      54
HURRICANE       99      99      99      98      90      70      34
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       1       5      12      30      39      27
HUR CAT 2        X       4      16      25      29      19       6
HUR CAT 3        6      36      45      37      24      10       2
HUR CAT 4       83      52      29      20       7       2       X
HUR CAT 5       11       7       5       4       1       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  130KT   125KT   120KT   115KT   105KT    95KT    80KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   4(14)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   4(12)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
L CARDENAS     34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)  42(64)   7(71)   1(72)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)   7(40)   X(40)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   4(22)   X(22)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  24(42)   7(49)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   4(21)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART                                         
NNNN