Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  98.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  25SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 65NE  50SE  35SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  98.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  98.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 100.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.2N 102.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N  98.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
 
 
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