Hurricane ADRIAN
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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE
AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. WITH NO
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE
THE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF.
ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE...THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS UNTIL
DISSIPATION. IF ADRIAN REMAINS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT COULD
ACQUIRE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDLESS...ADRIAN STILL WILL BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING OVER
COOL WATERS WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 15.3N 107.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.6N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 16.3N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 16.8N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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