Tropical Storm OPHELIA
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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 2 10
TROP DEPRESSION 3 9 8 8 6 5 26
TROPICAL STORM 90 77 67 57 50 43 51
HURRICANE 7 14 24 34 42 50 13
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 12 20 27 30 35 12
HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 5 9 11 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 4 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER PASCH
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