Tropical Storm ALEX
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TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 7 25 57
TROP DEPRESSION 3 2 2 1 10 26 21
TROPICAL STORM 85 51 27 18 27 29 11
HURRICANE 12 47 71 81 56 21 11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 11 40 50 41 24 9 3
HUR CAT 2 1 5 15 22 17 6 3
HUR CAT 3 X 1 4 14 12 4 4
HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 3 3 2 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 40KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 1(21)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 2(23)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 7(31) 2(33)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 10(28) 3(31)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 13(35) 3(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 28(41) 10(51) 3(54)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) 2(23)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 36(51) 10(61) 3(64)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 10(29) 3(32)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 25(38) 33(71) 7(78) 1(79)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 29(39) 7(46) 2(48)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 5(27) 1(28)
LA PESCO MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 30(46) 11(57) 2(59)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) 1(23)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 19(34) 6(40) 2(42)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 10(25) 4(29) 1(30)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16)
FRONTERA MX 34 11 4(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 1(23)
MERIDA MX 34 18 8(26) 4(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BELIZE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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