Tropical Storm ALMA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
1600 UTC THU MAY 29 2008
AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 26 56 X X X X
TROP DEPRESSION 14 55 32 X X X X
TROPICAL STORM 67 19 11 X X X X
HURRICANE 19 X 1 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 18 X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 2 1 X X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 30KT 20KT 0KT 0KT 0KT 0KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P SAN JOSE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO CATUCO 34 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
PUERTO CATUCO 50 14 7(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
PUERTO CATUCO 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AMAPALA 34 58 7(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
AMAPALA 50 17 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
AMAPALA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHOLUTECA 34 60 5(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
CHOLUTECA 50 20 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
CHOLUTECA 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANAGUA 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
MANAGUA 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CABO BLANCO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
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FORECASTER AVILA
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