Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 151N 1087W 34 33  11(44)   4(48)   1(49)   3(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 12 151N 1087W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 12 151N 1087W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 151N 1087W 34 33  11(44)   4(48)   1(49)   3(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 24 151N 1087W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 24 151N 1087W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 151N 1087W 34 33  11(44)   4(48)   1(49)   3(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 36 151N 1087W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 36 151N 1087W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 151N 1087W 34 33  11(44)   4(48)   1(49)   3(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 48 151N 1087W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 48 151N 1087W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 150N 1085W 34 35   7(42)   3(45)   1(46)   4(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 72 150N 1085W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 72 150N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 150N 1085W 34 35   7(42)   3(45)   1(46)   4(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 96 150N 1085W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 96 150N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 150N 1085W 34 35   7(42)   3(45)   1(46)   4(50)   1(51)   X(51)
120 150N 1085W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
120 150N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      35      35      35      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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