Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   7( 7)  25(32)   8(40)   3(43)   1(44)   X(44)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 160N 1127W 34 33  17(50)   2(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 12 160N 1127W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 160N 1127W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 169N 1137W 34  4  33(37)  10(47)   2(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 24 169N 1137W 50  X   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 169N 1137W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 180N 1145W 34  1  11(12)  25(37)   6(43)   2(45)   X(45)   1(46)
 36 180N 1145W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 180N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 189N 1150W 34  X   3( 3)  21(24)   9(33)   6(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 48 189N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 189N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 197N 1158W 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   8(28)   2(30)   X(30)
 72 197N 1158W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 72 197N 1158W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 200N 1170W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 96 200N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 96 200N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 200N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)
120 200N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
120 200N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      40      30      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
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