Hurricane IVO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  15(22)   6(28)   2(30)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  14(19)   5(24)   2(26)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  11(14)   6(20)   2(22)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  4  13(17)  12(29)   6(35)   4(39)   1(40)   1(41)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  4  33(37)  14(51)   3(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   8( 8)   6(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 173N 1130W 34 95   2(97)   1(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 173N 1130W 50 66  10(76)   2(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 173N 1130W 64 22  12(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 24 183N 1133W 34 52  32(84)   6(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 183N 1133W 50 10  42(52)   8(60)   1(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 24 183N 1133W 64  1  17(18)   7(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 36 193N 1131W 34  6  48(54)  19(73)   5(78)   3(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 36 193N 1131W 50  X  17(17)  20(37)   6(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 36 193N 1131W 64  X   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 48 203N 1127W 34  2  17(19)  29(48)  12(60)   9(69)   1(70)   X(70)
 48 203N 1127W 50  X   2( 2)  15(17)   9(26)   6(32)   1(33)   X(33)
 48 203N 1127W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 220N 1115W 34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  14(24)  17(41)   5(46)   1(47)
 72 220N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 72 220N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 235N 1105W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  14(20)   5(25)   2(27)
 96 235N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 96 235N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 255N 1095W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)
120 255N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
120 255N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      75      70      65      55      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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