Tropical Storm GIL
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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
...CORRECTED STORM NAME DEAN REFERENCE IN PARAGRAPH ONE TO GIL
THE CENTER OF GIL CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS THAT GIL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A STABLE AIR
MASS. THESE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY BALANCE...AND LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL GIL MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS IN A COUPLE DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/9. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 48
HOURS...GIL WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATER AND THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.2N 114.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 19.0N 115.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.9N 118.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.8N 120.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 18.8N 122.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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