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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007               
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  10(30)   1(31)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 128N 1343W 34 85   9(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 128N 1343W 50 25  19(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 12 128N 1343W 64  7   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 24 130N 1363W 34  2  67(69)  12(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 130N 1363W 50  X  24(24)  13(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 24 130N 1363W 64  X   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 36 133N 1384W 34  1  10(11)  47(58)  11(69)   3(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 36 133N 1384W 50  X   1( 1)  18(19)   8(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 133N 1384W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 136N 1404W 34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  27(46)  12(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 48 136N 1404W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 48 136N 1404W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 72 145N 1445W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   8(33)   X(33)
 72 145N 1445W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 72 145N 1445W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 155N 1490W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)
 96 155N 1490W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 96 155N 1490W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 165N 1530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
120 165N 1530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 165N 1530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     65      65      65      55      50      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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