Tropical Depression ERICK

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007               
1500 UTC THU AUG 02 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 137N 1314W 34 16   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 12 137N 1314W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 137N 1314W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 139N 1335W 34  X  16(16)   6(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 24 139N 1335W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 139N 1335W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 142N 1352W 34  X   3( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 36 142N 1352W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 142N 1352W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 143N 1373W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 48 143N 1373W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 143N 1373W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 145N 1420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 72 145N 1420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 145N 1420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 145N 1455W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 96 145N 1455W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 96 145N 1455W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 145N 1495W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 145N 1495W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 145N 1495W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      25      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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