Tropical Storm DALILA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007               
1500 UTC WED JUL 25 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 206N 1129W 34 51  23(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 12 206N 1129W 50  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 206N 1129W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 215N 1140W 34  5  27(32)  11(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 24 215N 1140W 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 215N 1140W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 223N 1154W 34  1   5( 6)  14(20)   5(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 36 223N 1154W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 223N 1154W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 230N 1170W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 48 230N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 48 230N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 240N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 72 240N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 240N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 245N 1230W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 96 245N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 245N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 245N 1255W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
120 245N 1255W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 245N 1255W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     40      35      30      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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