Tropical Depression ALVIN

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
1500 UTC THU MAY 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 129N 1158W 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 12 129N 1158W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 129N 1158W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 127N 1164W 34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 24 127N 1164W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 127N 1164W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 125N 1170W 34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 36 125N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 125N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 123N 1176W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 48 123N 1176W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 123N 1176W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 119N 1188W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 72 119N 1188W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 119N 1188W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 112N 1200W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 96 112N 1200W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 112N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 105N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
120 105N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 105N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     20     20      20      20      20      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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