Tropical Depression ALVIN

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
1500 UTC WED MAY 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 136N 1151W 34 18   5(23)   1(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 136N 1151W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 136N 1151W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 137N 1161W 34  5   8(13)   4(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 24 137N 1161W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 137N 1161W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 137N 1171W 34  1   5( 6)   6(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 36 137N 1171W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 137N 1171W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 134N 1181W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   X(14)   1(15)
 48 134N 1181W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 134N 1181W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 128N 1194W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 72 128N 1194W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 128N 1194W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 120N 1207W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 96 120N 1207W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 120N 1207W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 110N 1223W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
120 110N 1223W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 110N 1223W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     25      25      25      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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