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Tropical Storm NOEL


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TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE
THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY.  INFRARED IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT
FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 

CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED.  INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/4.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS STEERING FLOW EVOLUTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS NOEL GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.

ONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. 
HOWEVER...IN 36-48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 OR 40 KT.  THIS SHOULD TERMINATE ANY
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSFORM NOEL INTO A
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS
LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 21.4N  78.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 22.1N  78.8W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.3N  78.8W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 25.1N  78.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 27.6N  76.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  69.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 42.0N  62.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/0000Z 51.0N  55.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 
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