Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006               
0900 UTC THU NOV 09 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1059W 34 33   9(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 12 154N 1059W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 154N 1059W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 160N 1064W 34 12  17(29)   1(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 24 160N 1064W 50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 24 160N 1064W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 164N 1068W 34  5  14(19)   3(22)   1(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 36 164N 1068W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 164N 1068W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 166N 1072W 34  2  11(13)   4(17)   1(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 48 166N 1072W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 166N 1072W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 168N 1076W 34  1   7( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   2(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 72 168N 1076W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 168N 1076W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 167N 1079W 34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 96 167N 1079W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 96 167N 1079W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      30      25      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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