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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006               
0300 UTC THU NOV 09 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 153N 1056W 34 33   9(42)   1(43)   X(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 12 153N 1056W 50  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 153N 1056W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 161N 1062W 34  9  18(27)   2(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 24 161N 1062W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 24 161N 1062W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 165N 1066W 34  3  15(18)   4(22)   1(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 36 165N 1066W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 165N 1066W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 168N 1070W 34  1  10(11)   5(16)   1(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 48 168N 1070W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 168N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 170N 1075W 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 72 170N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 170N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 170N 1078W 34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 96 170N 1078W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 96 170N 1078W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      30      25      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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