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Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 171N 1244W 34 72   9(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 12 171N 1244W 50 10   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 12 171N 1244W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 175N 1264W 34  2  52(54)   7(61)   2(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 24 175N 1264W 50  X  12(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 24 175N 1264W 64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 177N 1280W 34  X  14(14)  28(42)   8(50)   2(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 36 177N 1280W 50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 36 177N 1280W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 177N 1296W 34  X   2( 2)  15(17)  16(33)   7(40)   1(41)   X(41)
 48 177N 1296W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 177N 1296W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 72 177N 1325W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   5(26)   1(27)
 72 177N 1325W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 72 177N 1325W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 177N 1350W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   2(16)
 96 177N 1350W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 177N 1350W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 177N 1380W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
120 177N 1380W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 177N 1380W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     50      50      50      45      40      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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