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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100  
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  36(54)   8(62)   1(63)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  21(26)   5(31)   X(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   X(16)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  35(52)   8(60)   1(61)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   5(29)   X(29)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  27(34)  10(44)   1(45)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   2(16)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   X(17)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   6(28)   1(29)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)  11(34)   1(35)   1(36)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   3( 3)  21(24)  17(41)   8(49)   X(49)   X(49)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1  10(11)  40(51)  12(63)   6(69)   X(69)   X(69)
P VALLARTA     50  X   1( 1)  16(17)   9(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2  50(52)  27(79)   4(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X  15(15)  33(48)   4(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   4( 4)  22(26)   3(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2  57(59)  21(80)   3(83)   X(83)   1(84)   X(84)
MANZANILLO     50  X  20(20)  24(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
MANZANILLO     64  X   5( 5)  14(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
L CARDENAS     34 65  19(84)   X(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
L CARDENAS     50 12  25(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
L CARDENAS     64  2  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34 67   5(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
ZIHUATANEJO    50 12   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34 23   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
P MALDONADO    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  11(19)   5(24)   X(24)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   3( 3)  29(32)  29(61)  11(72)   1(73)   X(73)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  21(30)   7(37)   1(38)   1(39)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 165N 1024W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 165N 1024W 50 86   7(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 165N 1024W 64 54  15(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 
 24 180N 1042W 34 14  74(88)   6(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 180N 1042W 50  1  61(62)  10(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 24 180N 1042W 64  X  36(36)  14(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
 36 195N 1060W 34  1  23(24)  49(73)   9(82)   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 36 195N 1060W 50  X   4( 4)  43(47)  12(59)   3(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 36 195N 1060W 64  X   1( 1)  26(27)  10(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
 48 209N 1077W 34  X   2( 2)  29(31)  34(65)  15(80)   2(82)   X(82)
 48 209N 1077W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  29(38)  12(50)   2(52)   X(52)
 48 209N 1077W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   9(29)   1(30)   X(30)
 
 
 72 222N 1107W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  35(51)  10(61)   1(62)
 72 222N 1107W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   7(29)   1(30)
 72 222N 1107W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   X(16)
 
 
 96 228N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  20(34)   5(39)
 96 228N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)
 96 228N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 230N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
120 230N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 230N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    110    120     120     115     105      90      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
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