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Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...JOHN STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEADING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA... 
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST
COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST
COAST.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN
BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...WEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 170 MILES...275
KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STROM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP
TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...107.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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