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Hurricane JOHN

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF MANZANILLO.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES
...130 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOHN LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  THESE
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE. 
 
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.5 N...106.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
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