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Hurricane JOHN

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...HURRICANE JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE VERY
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAS SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS.  THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.7 N...105.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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