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Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL BUT CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF EL
ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES
...135 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. HOWEVER
ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE
IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.  THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.4 N...103.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
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