Tropical Storm HECTOR

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006               
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 134N 1187W 34 93   4(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 134N 1187W 50 46  19(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 12 134N 1187W 64 16  10(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 24 139N 1207W 34 14  68(82)   8(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 24 139N 1207W 50  1  39(40)  13(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 24 139N 1207W 64  X  18(18)   8(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 36 146N 1227W 34  2  22(24)  43(67)  11(78)   3(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 36 146N 1227W 50  X   3( 3)  28(31)  10(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 36 146N 1227W 64  X   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 48 153N 1246W 34  X   4( 4)  26(30)  27(57)  13(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 48 153N 1246W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)   8(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 153N 1246W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 
 72 170N 1285W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  26(32)   6(38)   1(39)
 72 170N 1285W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 72 170N 1285W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 190N 1320W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)
 96 190N 1320W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 190N 1320W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 205N 1350W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
120 205N 1350W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 205N 1350W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      80      80      65      45      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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