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Tropical Depression GILMA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006               
0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 152N 1069W 34 18   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 12 152N 1069W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 152N 1069W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 157N 1082W 34  2  15(17)   4(21)   1(22)   X(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 24 157N 1082W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 157N 1082W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 161N 1098W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   4(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 36 161N 1098W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 161N 1098W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 166N 1114W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 48 166N 1114W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 166N 1114W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 175N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   1(15)
 72 175N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 72 175N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 190N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
 96 190N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 96 190N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 205N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
120 205N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 205N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
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