Tropical Storm GILMA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)   1(22)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 150N 1065W 34 47   4(51)   1(52)   X(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 12 150N 1065W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 150N 1065W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 153N 1079W 34  3  31(34)   9(43)   2(45)   X(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 24 153N 1079W 50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 153N 1079W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 157N 1095W 34  X   7( 7)  25(32)   9(41)   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 36 157N 1095W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 157N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 160N 1112W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  19(29)   8(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 48 160N 1112W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 160N 1112W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 170N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   5(25)   2(27)
 72 170N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 72 170N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 185N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
 96 185N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 96 185N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 210N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
120 210N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 210N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      45      40      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN