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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006               
0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   9(20)   2(22)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 143N 1056W 34 33  12(45)   2(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 12 143N 1056W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 143N 1056W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 150N 1068W 34  4  30(34)   9(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 150N 1068W 50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 150N 1068W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 155N 1083W 34  1   8( 9)  24(33)  10(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 36 155N 1083W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 155N 1083W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 159N 1098W 34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  17(31)  10(41)   X(41)   1(42)
 48 159N 1098W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 48 159N 1098W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 168N 1132W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  19(23)   6(29)   2(31)
 72 168N 1132W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 72 168N 1132W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 180N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   3(17)
 96 180N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 96 180N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 210N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
120 210N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 210N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      50      45      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
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