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Tropical Storm BUD


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006               
1500 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 201N 1292W 34 39   9(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 12 201N 1292W 50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 201N 1292W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 205N 1319W 34  X  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 24 205N 1319W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 205N 1319W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 208N 1345W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 208N 1345W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 208N 1345W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 210N 1370W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 210N 1370W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 210N 1370W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 210N 1425W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 72 210N 1425W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 72 210N 1425W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 205N 1485W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 96 205N 1485W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 96 205N 1485W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 200N 1540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 200N 1540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 200N 1540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     30      25      20      20      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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