Hurricane BUD
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85
KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 164N 1181W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 164N 1181W 50 73 10(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
12 164N 1181W 64 37 17(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
24 175N 1206W 34 5 78(83) 7(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
24 175N 1206W 50 X 45(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
24 175N 1206W 64 X 21(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
36 184N 1233W 34 X 11(11) 51(62) 8(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71)
36 184N 1233W 50 X 2( 2) 23(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
36 184N 1233W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
48 193N 1256W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 24(42) 7(49) 1(50) X(50)
48 193N 1256W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
48 193N 1256W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 200N 1300W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16)
72 200N 1300W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
72 200N 1300W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 200N 1335W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
96 200N 1335W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 200N 1335W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 195N 1370W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
120 195N 1370W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 195N 1370W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90 80 70 60 40 30 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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