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Tropical Storm ZETA

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TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 2100 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED MOSTLY
30-KT SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH A SINGLE 35-KT VECTOR
THAT MAY BE IN RAIN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30
KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  ZETA STILL
HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED AND RAGGED...MAKING FOR A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING
SYSTEM.  I WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT ONE COULD ALSO MAKE A CASE FOR DOWNGRADING THE
SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS AS IF ZETA
WILL NEVER DIE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING.

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT.  INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER 305/6...BUT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
LATEST TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFDL ACCELERATES ZETA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE THAN
WE ARE EXPECTING BY THAT TIME.  IT IS MORE REASONABLE TO ASSUME
THAT ZETA WILL BE A WEAKENED SYSTEM...PROBABLY A REMNANT LOW...THAT
WILL BE STEERED BY SHALLOW-LAYER WINDS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 23.2N  48.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 23.9N  49.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 24.6N  51.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 25.4N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.0N  56.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 31.5N  57.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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