Hurricane OPHELIA

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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
OPHELIA HAS SOMEWHAT RE-ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
CONVECTION MAKING OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB. 
THE NOAA PLANE MEASURED 73 KT AT 700 MB...AND A 59 KT SURFACE WIND
OFF THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  HOWEVER...THE
MAXIMUM WIND OBSERVED THUS FAR BY THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT AT 59 MB
IS 59 KT.  THERE IS ALSO A REPORT OF 74 KT AT 2500 FT FROM THE
FIRST-EVER SUCCESSFUL AEROSONDE FLIGHT INTO THE CORE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  BASED ON ALL THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

OPHELIA HAS TURNED RIGHT AND ACCELERATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
040/11.  THE STORM IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN THE STORM SHOULD
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AFTER
72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK IS AGAIN A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...PARTICULARLY AFTER 24 HR.
 
WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE OPHELIA CROSSES
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN 12-18 HR.  AFTER THAT...COLDER
WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 36.8N  73.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 38.7N  71.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 41.6N  68.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 45.2N  63.6W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  57.3W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 51.5N  43.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 53.5N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/1800Z 55.0N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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