Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST...
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO
ACAPULCO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  97.2 WEST OR
ABOUT   65 MILES... 100 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...14.9 N... 97.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 2 AM PDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

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