Hurricane JEANNE

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HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...JEANNE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
   TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO
ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY.  SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  73.5 WEST OR ABOUT  225
MILES... 360 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 400
MILES... 645 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
 
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE 
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
 
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 73.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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