Hurricane FRANCES
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HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.4N 56.3W 46 X X X 46 TIST 183N 650W X X 2 12 14
19.8N 58.6W 10 23 X X 33 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 10 10
20.1N 61.1W X 12 14 1 27 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 3 3
TDPR 153N 614W X X 1 2 3 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 1 11 12
80400 157N 636W X X 1 4 5 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 3 3
TFFR 163N 615W X 1 3 4 8 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 4 4
TAPA 171N 618W X 2 7 3 12 ST CROIX VI X X 2 10 12
TKPK 173N 627W X X 7 6 13 ST THOMAS VI X X 2 12 14
TNCM 181N 631W X X 10 6 16 SAN JUAN PR X X 1 11 12
TISX 177N 648W X X 2 10 12 PONCE PR X X X 10 10
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN
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