Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0900Z WED SEP 08 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.
 
AT 5 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  64.8W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  75SE  35SW 100NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE  50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  64.8W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  64.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.1N  67.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  60SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.2N  70.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.8N  75.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N  78.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N  82.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  64.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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