Tropical Storm IVAN

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TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
2100Z FRI SEP 03 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.9N  34.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.9N  34.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.0N  33.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z  8.7N  37.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z  8.7N  40.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z  9.0N  43.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z  9.8N  46.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.5N  53.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 13.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N  64.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.9N  34.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH
 
 
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