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Hurricane ISIS

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TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISIS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS REMAINING AT THIS TIME. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
40 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY DUBIOUS 280/2.  DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
THIS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SHIFTED SOUTH
OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
 
ISIS IS OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED.  UNLESS
THE CONVECTION RETURNS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...WITH
ISIS BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN 12 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HR. 
THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL FORECAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL
CALLS FOR SOME REGENERATION WHEN THE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO WARMER
WATER.  THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 18.3N 132.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.3N 133.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.2N 133.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 18.1N 134.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.8N 134.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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