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Hurricane ISABEL

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TROPICAL STORM ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003

...ISABEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT TO MORICHES INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND DELAWARE BAY.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE  78.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA.
 
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
LAND...STRONG WINDS GUSTS...MAY BE EXPERIENCED WELL INLAND ALONG
THE TRACK OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ON HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...MAY STILL
OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.
 
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARYLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...37.7 N... 78.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
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