Hurricane ISABEL
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HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
33.0N 74.6W 40 X X X 40 OCEAN CITY MD X 5 9 2 16
35.2N 76.4W 7 20 1 X 28 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 1 6 6 13
38.2N 78.2W X 8 11 1 20 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 2 8 10
CHARLESTON SC 1 4 2 X 7 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7
MYRTLE BEACH SC 3 12 1 X 16 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 6 6
WILMINGTON NC 7 16 1 X 24 NANTUCKET MA X X X 4 4
MOREHEAD CITY NC 12 16 1 X 29 HYANNIS MA X X X 4 4
CAPE HATTERAS NC 9 18 X X 27 BOSTON MA X X X 5 5
NORFOLK VA X 18 4 X 22 PORTLAND ME X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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